There is usually a post-halving pullback of about 20-30%, followed by a sideways market for half a year or so. This year (2024) too!

crypto assets are doing exactly as expected

The main crypto assets are doing exactly what one could have expected for this spring. That doesn’t make it much easier to trade the slippery little suckers. It does however make it more comfortable to accumulate and hold’em.

This is my updated view on Bitcoin and Ether May 1, 2024:

There is usually a post-halving pullback of about 20-30%, followed by a sideways market for half a year or so. That’s where we are now. That lateral move has a tendency to appear or feel as a falling market, which usually shakes out some weak hands, non-believers. There are arguments for both a larger and a smaller move this time,not least due to ETF money.

Bitcoin peaked at 73 800 USD on March 14, 2024. There are nice supports at around 52k (-30%) and 42k (-43%), from where the recent rallies began. The $52k mark is the most reasonable buying level, purely technically.

However, if you’re a bit more both cautious and greedy at the same time the support at $42k looks much more solid than the flimsy bull flag at $52k.

In addition, the 42k mark coincides with where the rising trend line, for the current bull market that started at 16k at the beginning of 2024, would be around October 2024. That looks like a perfect set-up for the true bull market move half a year after the halving, starting around October 2024.

OCTOBER 2024!

It’s a correction in a bull market, what to do?!

It’s a bull market alright! But I don’t think there is any rush to get in right now! Sure, I still fully expect at least 3 times the current level (=$175k) before the end of 2025, and more likely 5x (=$285k), and possibly 10x (=$570k per BTC), so you should have at least some exposure on the whole time.

$570k per BTC (to da moon)

The key factor is the ETF flows. If retail ETF investors get excited or discouraged by positive or negative price momentum their flows can cause huge moves in crypto prices, since the ETFs are completely price agnostic once they have the new funds available. They’ll buy or sell at any price on the day of the flow. They have to according to their fiduciary duty and SEC permits.

If the price falls to around $52k, I think ETF outflows are likely to push the price further down yet. And $42k looks like a nice target for attracting som real buyers again, which might stop the post halving price crash. And I’m actually leaning toward Eric Wall’s 2024 even more pessimistic (actually optimistic for us buyers) prediction of being able to buy BTC again this year below $35k, I think he said in his public list of predictions (or was it below 30k?!). It’s not unreasonable at all, just looking at the chart and considering the mighty ETF flows.

FOMO? Do this!

But if you’re prone to FOMO, why not buy a little at $55k to be sure to have some exposure, then more at $45k, and a lot at $35k to get a low average cost if given the chance, then more yet on rising prices at $45k and $55k.

Don’t forget that we are aiming for $300-600k by December 2025 and $1-2m by December 2029, when real fee-based institutions might be ready to allocate a few percent of their $300 trillion assets to the crypto space. Please also note that I think ETH will do better than BTC, but I still personally would hold equal amounts of BTC and ETH.

Disclaimer: Don’t get greedy, don’t take stupid risks, don’t construe my articles as recommendations to invest in crypto assets. They aren’t! Do your own research and consult a certified financial adviser before putting a dime at risk in these crazy markets!

Current BTC price: $56 952

Current ETH price: $2 880

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